Nomogram-based geometric and hemodynamic parameters for predicting the growth of small untreated intracranial aneurysms

Previous studies have shown that the growth status of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) predisposes to rupture. This study aimed to construct a nomogram for predicting the growth of small IAs based on geometric and hemodynamic parameters. We retrospectively collected the baseline and follow-up angiographic images (CTA/ MRA) of 96 small untreated saccular IAs, created patient-specific vascular models and performed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Geometric and hemodynamic parameters were calculated. A stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was employed to construct a nomogram. IAs were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups based on the total points from the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA) and Kaplan–Meier curves were evaluated for internal validation. In total, 30 untreated saccular IAs were grown (31.3%; 95%CI 21.8%-40.7%). The PHASES, ELAPSS, and UIATS performed poorly in distinguishing growth status. Hypertension (hazard ratio [HR] 4.26, 95%CI 1.61–11.28; P = 0.004), nonsphericity index (95%CI 4.10–25.26; P = 0.003), max relative residence time (HR 1.01, 95%CI 1.00–1.01; P = 0.032) were independently related to the growth status. A nomogram was constructed with the above predictors and achieved a satisfactory prediction in the validation cohort. The log-rank test showed significant discrimination among the Kaplan–Meier curves of different risk groups in the training and validation cohorts. A nomogram consisting of geometric and hemodynamic parameters presented an accurate prediction for the growth status of small IAs and achieved risk stratification. It showed higher predictive efficacy than the assessment tools.