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BMC Public Health
Published in: BMC Public Health 1/2012

Open Access 01-12-2012 | Research article

Impact of behavioural risk factors on death within 10 years for women and men in their 70s: absolute risk charts

Authors: Annette Dobson, Deirdre McLaughlin, Osvaldo Almeida, Wendy Brown, Julie Byles, Leon Flicker, Janni Leung, Derrick Lopez, Kieran McCaul, Graeme J Hankey

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2012

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Abstract

Background

Estimates of the absolute risk of death based on the combined effects of sex, age and health behaviours are scarce for elderly people. The aim of this paper is to calculate population based estimates and display them using simple charts that may be useful communication tools for public health authorities, health care providers and policy makers.

Methods

Data were drawn from two concurrent prospective observational cohort studies of community-based older Australian women (N = 7,438) and men (N = 6,053) aged 71 to 79. The outcome measure was death within ten years. The predictor variables were: sex, age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity.

Results

Patterns of risks were similar in men and women but absolute risk of death was between 9 percentage points higher in men (17 %) than in women (8 %) in the lowest risk group (aged 71–73 years, never smoked, overweight, physically active and consumed alcohol weekly) and 21 % higher in men (73-74 %) than women (51-52 %) in the highest risk group (aged 77–79 years, normal weight or obese, current smoker, physically inactive and drink alcohol less than weekly).

Conclusions

These absolute risk charts provide a tool for understanding the combined effects of behavioural risk factors for death among older people.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Impact of behavioural risk factors on death within 10 years for women and men in their 70s: absolute risk charts
Authors
Annette Dobson
Deirdre McLaughlin
Osvaldo Almeida
Wendy Brown
Julie Byles
Leon Flicker
Janni Leung
Derrick Lopez
Kieran McCaul
Graeme J Hankey
Publication date
01-12-2012
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2012
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-669

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