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Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery

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Open Access 01-12-2023 | Heart Surgery | Research

Prediction of new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation using a simple Nomogram

Authors: Siming Zhu, Hebin Che, Yunlong Fan, Shengli Jiang

Published in: Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery | Issue 1/2023

Abstract

Background

New onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is the most common complication of cardiac surgery, with an incidence ranging from 15 to 50%. This study aimed to develop a new nomogram to predict POAF using preoperative and intraoperative risk factors.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the data of 2108 consecutive adult patients (> 18 years old) who underwent cardiac surgery at our medical institution. The types of surgery included isolated coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery, combined valve and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), or aortic surgery. Logistic regression or machine learning methods were applied to predict POAF incidence from a subset of 123 parameters. We also developed a simple nomogram based on the strength of the results and compared its predictive ability with that of the CHA2DS2-VASc and POAF scores currently used in clinical practice.

Results

POAF was observed in 414 hospitalized patients. Logistic regression provided the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) in the validation cohort. A simple bedside tool comprising three variables (age, left atrial diameter, and surgery type) was established, which had a discriminative ability with a ROC of 0.726 (95% CI 0.693–0.759) and 0.727 (95% CI 0.676–0.778) in derivation and validation subsets respectively. The calibration curve of the new model was relatively well-fit (p = 0.502).

Conclusions

Logistic regression performed better than machine learning in predicting POAF. We developed a nomogram that may assist clinicians in identifying individuals who are prone to POAF.

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Title: Prediction of new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation using a simple Nomogram
Authors: Siming Zhu
Hebin Che
Yunlong Fan
Shengli Jiang
Publication date: 01-12-2023
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Heart Surgery
Heart Surgery
Atrial Fibrillation
CABG
CABG
Published in: Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery / Issue 1/2023
Electronic ISSN: 1749-8090
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13019-023-02198-1

2024 ASCO Annual Meeting

Springer Medicine

Prediction of new onset postoperative atrial fibrillation using a simple Nomogram

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

2024 ASCO Annual Meeting

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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