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Open Access 01-05-2018 | Original Article

Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Authors: Jo-An Atkinson, Dylan Knowles, John Wiggers, Michael Livingston, Robin Room, Ante Prodan, Geoff McDonnell, Eloise O’Donnell, Sandra Jones, Paul S. Haber, David Muscatello, Nadine Ezard, Nghi Phung, Louise Freebairn, Devon Indig, Lucie Rychetnik, Jaithri Ananthapavan, Sonia Wutzke, On behalf of the alcohol modelling consortium

Published in: International Journal of Public Health | Issue 4/2018

Abstract

Objectives

Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world.

Methods

A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined.

Results

A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.

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Title: Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
Authors: Jo-An Atkinson
Dylan Knowles
John Wiggers
Michael Livingston
Robin Room
Ante Prodan
Geoff McDonnell
Eloise O’Donnell
Sandra Jones
Paul S. Haber
David Muscatello
Nadine Ezard
Nghi Phung
Louise Freebairn
Devon Indig
Lucie Rychetnik
Jaithri Ananthapavan
Sonia Wutzke
On behalf of the alcohol modelling consortium
Publication date: 01-05-2018
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Published in: International Journal of Public Health / Issue 4/2018
Print ISSN: 1661-8556
Electronic ISSN: 1661-8564
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Abstract

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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