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BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2006

Open Access 01-12-2006 | Research article

Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk

Authors: Dominic E Job, Heather C Whalley, Andrew M McIntosh, David GC Owens, Eve C Johnstone, Stephen M Lawrie

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2006

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Abstract

Background

We hypothesised that subjects at familial high risk of developing schizophrenia would have a reduction over time in grey matter, particularly in the temporal lobes, and that this reduction may predict schizophrenia better than clinical measurements.

Methods

We analysed magnetic resonance images of 65 high-risk subjects from the Edinburgh High Risk Study sample who had two scans a mean of 1.52 years apart. Eight of these 65 subjects went on to develop schizophrenia an average of 2.3 years after their first scan.

Results

Changes over time in the inferior temporal gyrus gave a 60% positive predictive value (likelihood ratio >10) of developing schizophrenia compared to the overall 13% risk in the cohort as a whole.

Conclusion

Changes in grey matter could be used as part of a predictive test for schizophrenia in people at enhanced risk for familial reasons, particularly for positive predictive power, in combination with other clinical and cognitive predictive measures, several of which are strong negative predictors. However, because of the limited number of subjects, this test requires independent replication to confirm its validity.
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Johnstone EC, Ebmeier KP, Miller P, Owens DG, Lawrie SM: Predicting schizophrenia: findings from the Edinburgh High-Risk Study. Br J Psychiatry. 2005, 186: 18-25. 10.1192/bjp.186.1.18.CrossRefPubMed
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Job DE, Whalley HC, Johnstone EC, Lawrie SM: Grey matter changes over time in high risk subjects developing schizophrenia. NeuroImage. 2005, 25: 1023-1030. 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2005.01.006.CrossRefPubMed
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Lawrie SM, Whalley HC, Abukmeil SS, Kestelman JN, Donnelly L, Miller P, Best JJ, Owens DG, Johnstone EC: Brain structure, genetic liability and psychotic symptoms in subjects at high risk of developing schizophrenia. Biol Psychiatry. 2001, 49: 811-823. 10.1016/S0006-3223(00)01117-3.CrossRefPubMed
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Whalley HC, Kestelman JN, Rimmington JE, Kelso A, Abukmeil SS, Best JJ, Johnstone EC, Lawrie SM: Methodological issues in volumetric magnetic resonance imaging of the brain in the Edinburgh High Risk Project. Psychiatry Res. 1999, 91: 31-44.CrossRefPubMed
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Lawrie SM, Whalley HC, Abukmeil SS, Kestelman JN, Miller P, Best JJ, Owens DG, Johnstone EC: Temporal lobe volume changes in people at high risk of schizophrenia with psychotic symptoms. Br J Psychiatry. 2002, 181: 138-143.PubMed
Metadata
Title
Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk
Authors
Dominic E Job
Heather C Whalley
Andrew M McIntosh
David GC Owens
Eve C Johnstone
Stephen M Lawrie
Publication date
01-12-2006
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2006
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-4-29

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