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Published in: The European Journal of Health Economics 1/2012

Open Access 01-02-2012 | Original paper

Future costs in cost-effectiveness analysis: an empirical assessment

Authors: Marie Kruse, Jan Sørensen, Dorte Gyrd-Hansen

Published in: The European Journal of Health Economics | Issue 1/2012

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Abstract

Aim

The aim of this study was to assess the impact on the cost-effectiveness ratio of including measures of production and consumption following a health care or health promotion intervention that improves survival.

Data and methods

We defined the net incremental consumption, or future costs, as the change in consumption minus change in production, while differentiating between health care and non-health care consumption. Based on 2005 register-based data for the entire Danish population, we estimated the average value of annual production and consumption for 1-year age groups. We computed the net consumption in the remaining expected lifetime and the net consumption per life year gained for different age groups.

Results

Age has a profound effect on the magnitude of net consumption. When including net incremental consumption in the cost-effectiveness ratio of a health care or health promotion intervention, the relative cost-effectiveness changed up to €21,000 across age groups. The largest difference in the cost-effectiveness ratio was observed among the 30-year-olds where costs were reduced significantly due to significant future net contributions to society.

Conclusion

This paper contains cost figures for use in cost-effectiveness analyses, when the societal perspective is adopted and future consumption and production effects are taken into account. The net consumption varies considerably with age. Inclusion of net incremental consumption in the cost-effectiveness analysis will markedly affect the relative cost-effectiveness of interventions targeted at different age groups. Omitting future cost from cost-effectiveness analysis may bias the ranking of health care interventions and favour interventions aimed at older age groups. We used Danish data for this assessment, and our results will therefore not represent true figures for other countries. We do, however, believe that the overall impact of including net production value in CEA will be similar in other countries that have similar transfers of income from the younger age groups to older age groups as well as publicly financed social and health care services.
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Metadata
Title
Future costs in cost-effectiveness analysis: an empirical assessment
Authors
Marie Kruse
Jan Sørensen
Dorte Gyrd-Hansen
Publication date
01-02-2012
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Published in
The European Journal of Health Economics / Issue 1/2012
Print ISSN: 1618-7598
Electronic ISSN: 1618-7601
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-010-0280-0

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