Fall-induced fractures of the calcaneus and foot in older people: nationwide statistics in Finland between 1970 and 2013 and prediction for the future

Although fall-induced fractures of elderly persons are a major problem, epidemiologic knowledge on their time trends is limited. We assessed the trends in fall-induced fractures of the calcaneus and foot in older Finns between 1970 and 2013.

The current trends in the number and incidence (per 100 000 persons) of fall-induced fractures of the calcaneus and foot of older Finns were determined by taking into account individuals 50-year-olds or older who were admitted to Finnish hospitals for primary treatment of such injury in 1970–2013.

The number and raw incidence of these fractures increased considerably between 1970 and 2013, from 64 (number) and 5.6 (incidence) in 1970, to 325 and 15.0, respectively, in 2013. The age-adjusted incidence of fracture was higher in men than women and showed a clear rise in both sexes in 1970–2013, from 7.2 to 15.2 in men (111 % increase), and from 4.3 to 13.9 in women (223 % increase). A similar rise was observed in the age-specific incidences. If trends in the age-specific fracture incidence continue at the same rate as were observed in 1970–2013, and the 50-year-old or older population increases as predicted (by 15 % by the year 2030), the annual number of fall-induced fractures of the calcaneus and foot in this population will be 1.8 times higher in the year 2030 (580 fractures) than it was in 2013 (325 fractures).

The number of fall-induced fractures of the calcaneus and foot among Finns 50 years of age or older has risen sharply between 1970 and 2013 with a rate that cannot be explained merely by demographic changes. Further studies should examine the reasons for the rise and possibilities for fracture prevention.