Factors Predicting Long-term Graft Survival after Kidney Transplantation: Multicenter Study in Japan

A multicenter retrospective study was conducted in 936 living donor kidney transplant recipients treated with cyclosporine (CsA) or tacrolimus (FK) from April 1982. The influences of acute rejection, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension were estimated by Kaplan-Meier’s analysis and Wilcoxon’s analysis. Of 916 recipients, 532 (58.1%) had acute rejections. The 5- and 10-year graft survival rates in the recipients with acute rejection were 75.2% and 55.2%, respectively. The corresponding rates of the recipients without acute rejection were 80.2% and 70.6%, respectively. The graft survival rate was worse in recipients with late-phase rejection and multiple rejection episodes (p < 0.00006). Of 451 recipients, 176 (39.0%) had hypercholesterolemia 3 years after kidney transplantation. The 5- and 10-year graft survival rates in the recipients with hypercholesterolemia were 88.7% and 68.7%, respectively. Those of the recipients without hypercholesterolemia were 95.2% and 83.9%, respectively. The graft survival rate in the recipients with hypercholesterolemia was lower than that in the recipients without hypercholesterolemia (p = 0.003). Of 323 recipients, 123 (38.1%) had hypertriglyceridemia 3 years after kidney transplantation. The 5- and 10-year graft survival rates in the recipients with hypertriglyceridemia were 93.7% and 80.5%, respectively. Those in the recipients without hypertriglyceridemia were 95.1% and 86.5%, respectively. The graft survival rate in the recipients with hypertriglyceridemia was lower than that in the recipients without hypertriglyceridemia (p = 0.371). Of 367 recipients, 151 (41.1%) had systolic hypertension 3 years after kidney transplantation. The 5- and 10-year graft survival rates in the recipients with hypertension were 85.6% and 64.7%, respectively. Those of the recipients without hypertension were 95.6% and 83.8%, respectively. The graft survival rate in the recipients with hypertension was lower than that in the recipients without hypertension (p < 0.001). Acute rejection, hyperlipidemia (hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia), and hypertension are predictive factors for long-term graft survival. Especially the onset time, number of rejections, and efficacy of treatment for acute rejection would have a significant influence on long-term graft survival.