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31-05-2022 | COVID-19

Sociodemographic and Policy Factors Associated with the Transmission of COVID-19: Analyzing Longitudinal Contact Tracing Data from a Northern Chinese City

Authors: Han Liu, Zai Liang, Shiyong Zhang, Lihua Liu

Published in: Journal of Urban Health | Issue 3/2022

Abstract

To examine how sociodemographic characteristics and non-pharmaceutical interventions affect the transmission of COVID-19, we analyze patient profiles and contact tracing data from almost all cases in an outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China, from January to February 2021. Because of universal testing and digital tracing, the data are of high quality. Results from negative binomial models indicate that the counts of close contacts and secondary infections vary with the cases’ age and occupation. Notably, cases under age 18 are causing an increased infection rate among their close contacts and leading to more within-neighborhood secondary infections than adults aged 18–49. Also, county-wide interventions and lockdown are found to be effective at containing the spread of COVID-19. These measures can reduce the number of close contacts that each case has and largely restrict the remaining infections to the case’s neighborhood. These results suggest that transmission risks of COVID-19 are associated with the case’s sociodemographic characteristics and can be reduced with interventions at the county level. Implications on mitigation measures and reopening plans are discussed.

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In this study, we assume each index case is the source and his or her identified contacts who turned positive are secondary infections. However, due to the potentially long incubation period of COVID-19, it could be the other way around. We thank an anonymous reviewer for pointing out this possibility.

Peasants include self-employed small farmers and agricultural laborers. Other manual jobs include skilled and unskilled manual occupations that are non-agricultural. Non-manual jobs include all clerical, professional, and managerial occupations. Not employed includes unemployed working-age adults as well as children and retired elders.

Because the patient profiles do not have detailed address information for rural cases, which account for more than 60% of cases covered in our analysis, we are not able to evaluate within-household transmission in this study.

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Title: Sociodemographic and Policy Factors Associated with the Transmission of COVID-19: Analyzing Longitudinal Contact Tracing Data from a Northern Chinese City
Authors: Han Liu
Zai Liang
Shiyong Zhang
Lihua Liu
Publication date: 31-05-2022
Publisher: Springer US
Keyword: COVID-19
Published in: Journal of Urban Health / Issue 3/2022
Print ISSN: 1099-3460
Electronic ISSN: 1468-2869
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-022-00639-1

2024 ASCO Annual Meeting

Springer Medicine

Sociodemographic and Policy Factors Associated with the Transmission of COVID-19: Analyzing Longitudinal Contact Tracing Data from a Northern Chinese City

Abstract

2024 ASCO Annual Meeting

Springer Medicine

Abstract

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