Top

Journal of Public Health

Published in:

21-02-2023 | COVID-19 | Original Article

Parallel evolution and control method for predicting the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in pandemics

Authors: Hai-nan Huang, Tian Xie, Wei-fan Chen, Yao-yao Wei

Published in: Journal of Public Health | Issue 4/2024

Abstract

Aim

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important strategies to utilize in reducing the negative systemic impact pandemic disasters have on human health. However, early on in the pandemic, the lack of prior knowledge and the rapidly changing nature of pandemics make it challenging to construct effective epidemiological models that can be used for anti-contagion decision-making.

Subject and methods

Based on the parallel control and management theory (PCM) and epidemiological models, we developed a Parallel Evolution and Control Framework for Epidemics (PECFE), which can optimize epidemiological models according to the dynamic information during the evolution of pandemics.

Results

The cross-application between PCM and epidemiological models enabled us to successfully construct an anti-contagion decision-making model for the early stages of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Using the model, we estimated the effects of gathering bans, intra-city traffic blockades, emergency hospitals, and disinfection, forecasted pandemic trends under different NPIs strategies, and analyzed specific strategies to prevent pandemic rebounds.

Conclusion

The successful simulation and forecasting of the pandemic showed that the PECFE could be effective in constructing decision models during pandemic outbreaks, which is crucial for emergency management where every second counts.

Available only for authorised users

Abramowicz J, Basseal J (2020) World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology Position Statement: How to perform a safe ultrasound examination and clean equipment in the context of COVID-19. Ultrasound Med Biol 46(7):1821–1826. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ultrasmedbio.2020.03.033CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Banholzer N, van Weenen E, Lison A et al (2021) Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the number of new infections with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave. PLoS One 16(6):e0252827. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252827CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Brauner JM, Mindermann S, Sharma M et al (2021) Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19. Science 371(6531):eabd9338. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd9338CrossRefPubMed

Chang SL, Harding N, Zachreson C et al (2020) Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. Nat Commun 11:5710. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6ADSCrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Dehning J, Zierenberg J, Spitzner FP et al (2020) Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions. Science 369(6500):eabb9789. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb9789CrossRefPubMed

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A et al (2020) Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature 584:257–261. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7ADSCrossRefPubMed

Hsiang S, Allen D, Annan-Phan S et al (2020) The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature 584(7820):262–267. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2404-8ADSCrossRefPubMed

Islam N, Sharp SJ, Chowell G et al (2020) Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries. BMJ 370:m2743. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m2743CrossRefPubMed

Jin H, Lu L, Liu J, Cui M (2020) Complex emergencies of COVID-19: management and experience in Zhuhai, China. Int J Antimicrob Agents 55(5):105961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105961CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Kermack WO, McKendrick AG (1927) A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc R Soc Lond A 115(772):700–721. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118ADSCrossRef

Lai S, Ruktanonchai NW, Zhou L et al (2020) Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China. Nature 585:410–413. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2293-xADSCrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Li L, Wang X, Wang K et al (2019) Parallel testing of vehicle intelligence via virtual-real interaction. Sci Robot 4(28):eaaw4106. https://doi.org/10.1126/scirobotics.aaw4106CrossRefPubMed

Li R, Pei S, Chen B et al (2020) Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Science 368(6490):489–493. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb3221ADSCrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Lin Q, Zhao S, Gao D et al (2020) A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action. Int J Infect Dis 93:211–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Liu Y, Morgenstern C, Kelly J et al (2021) The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories. BMC Med 19:40. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01872-8CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Maier BF, Brockmann D (2020) Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. Science 368(6492):742–746. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb4557ADSMathSciNetCrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Pandey A, Atkins KE, Medlock J et al (2014) Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa. Science 346(6212):991–995. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1260612ADSCrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Pei S, Morone F, Liljeros F et al (2018) Inference and control of the nosocomial transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. eLife 7:e40977. https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.40977CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Wang F (2010) Parallel control and management for intelligent transportation systems: concepts, architectures, and applications. IEEE Trans Intell Transp Syst 11(03):630–638. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2010.2060218ADSCrossRef

World Health Organization (2020) Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations: scientific brief. WHO. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331616. Accessed 26 May 2022

Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM (2020) Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet 395(10225):689–697. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Xie T, Wei Y, Chen W, Huang H (2020) Parallel evolution and response decision method for public sentiment based on system dynamics. Eur J Oper Res 287(03):1131–1148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.05.025CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Zhang J, Lin G, Zeng J et al (2020) Challenges of SARS-CoV-2 and lessons learnt from SARS in Guangdong Province, China. J Clin Virol 126:104341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcv.2020.104341CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Title: Parallel evolution and control method for predicting the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in pandemics
Authors: Hai-nan Huang
Tian Xie
Wei-fan Chen
Yao-yao Wei
Publication date: 21-02-2023
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Keyword: COVID-19
Published in: Journal of Public Health / Issue 4/2024
Print ISSN: 2198-1833
Electronic ISSN: 1613-2238
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10389-023-01843-2

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Parallel evolution and control method for predicting the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in pandemics

Abstract

Aim

Subject and methods

Results

Conclusion

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Aim

Subject and methods

Results

Conclusion

Please log in to get access to this content

Other articles of this Issue 4/2024

University students’ knowledge level about risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, their healthy life awareness, and the influencing factors

SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological trend before vaccination era: a seroprevalence study in Apulia, Southern Italy, in 2020

Psychosocial challenges of married women who have experienced domestic violence: a qualitative study

Secular trends of birthweight in a population of live-born, singletons, without congenital anomalies in Queensland, Australia

Profile and predictors of barriers to physical activities: a cross-sectional assessment focusing community dwellers visiting a public healthcare institute of Quetta city, Pakistan

Knowledge, attitudes, and factors determining the willingness for COVID-19 vaccination among students in Bangladesh: An online-based cross-sectional study