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BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

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Open Access 01-12-2023 | Coronavirus | Research

Predictive algorithm for the regional spread of coronavirus infection across the Russian Federation

Authors: Andrey Reshetnikov, Vitalii Berdutin, Alexander Zaporozhtsev, Sergey Romanov, Olga Abaeva, Nadezhda Prisyazhnaya, Nadezhda Vyatkina

Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making | Issue 1/2023

Abstract

Background

Outbreaks of infectious diseases are a complex phenomenon with many interacting factors. Regional health authorities need prognostic modeling of the epidemic process.

Methods

For these purposes, various mathematical algorithms can be used, which are a useful tool for studying the infections spread dynamics. Epidemiological models act as evaluation and prognosis models. The authors outlined the experience of developing a short-term predictive algorithm for the spread of the COVID-19 in the region of the Russian Federation based on the SIR model: Susceptible (vulnerable), Infected (infected), Recovered (recovered). The article describes in detail the methodology of a short-term predictive algorithm, including an assessment of the possibility of building a predictive model and the mathematical aspects of creating such forecast algorithms.

Results

Findings show that the predicted results (the mean square of the relative error of the number of infected and those who had recovered) were in agreement with the real-life situation: σ(I) = 0.0129 and σ(R) = 0.0058, respectively.

Conclusions

The present study shows that despite a large number of sophisticated modifications, each of which finds its scope, it is advisable to use a simple SIR model to quickly predict the spread of coronavirus infection. Its lower accuracy is fully compensated by the adaptive calibration of parameters based on monitoring the current situation with updating indicators in real-time.

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Title: Predictive algorithm for the regional spread of coronavirus infection across the Russian Federation
Authors: Andrey Reshetnikov
Vitalii Berdutin
Alexander Zaporozhtsev
Sergey Romanov
Olga Abaeva
Nadezhda Prisyazhnaya
Nadezhda Vyatkina
Publication date: 01-12-2023
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Coronavirus
COVID-19
Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making / Issue 1/2023
Electronic ISSN: 1472-6947
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-023-02135-1

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Predictive algorithm for the regional spread of coronavirus infection across the Russian Federation

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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