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Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery

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Open Access 01-08-2017 | Original Article

Conditional Survival Analysis Demonstrates that Recurrence Risk of Surgically Treated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Evolves with Time

Authors: Yong Keun Park, Sung Kyu Song, Bong-Wan Kim, Seung-Keun Park, Jong In Lee, Seung Su Lim, Hee-Jung Wang

Published in: Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery | Issue 8/2017

Abstract

Objective

The study aim was to investigate long-term change in tumor recurrence risk in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatic resection. Recurrence probability over time was estimated by conditional survival (CS) analysis.

Patients and Methods

Early-stage HCC patients with hepatic resection were selected for inclusion from our surgery database. Variables predictive of tumor recurrence were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Five-year recurrence-free CS probability was calculated for all patients and for risk groups stratified by independent predictors.

Results

In this series of 436 patients, tumor size >5 cm, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, liver cirrhosis, and a indocyanine green retention ratio at 15 min (ICG-R15) >20% were independently predictive of tumor recurrence. The estimated 5-year recurrence-free CS probability improved with each additional year of recurrence-free survival, and the improvement was significantly greater in the high-risk than in the low- or intermediate-risk groups.

Conclusion

CS provides added value during follow-up of early-stage HCC patients treated by surgical resection.

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Title: Conditional Survival Analysis Demonstrates that Recurrence Risk of Surgically Treated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Evolves with Time
Authors: Yong Keun Park
Sung Kyu Song
Bong-Wan Kim
Seung-Keun Park
Jong In Lee
Seung Su Lim
Hee-Jung Wang
Publication date: 01-08-2017
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery / Issue 8/2017
Print ISSN: 1091-255X
Electronic ISSN: 1873-4626
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11605-017-3437-7

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Conditional Survival Analysis Demonstrates that Recurrence Risk of Surgically Treated Hepatocellular Carcinoma Evolves with Time

Abstract

Objective

Patients and Methods

Results

Conclusion

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Objective

Patients and Methods

Results

Conclusion

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