Skip to main content
Key Specialties
Cardiology Diabetology Endocrinology Gastroenterology Geriatrics and Gerontology Gynecology and Obstetrics Hematology Infectious Disease Internal Medicine Nephrology Neurology Oncology Pediatrics Respiratory Medicine Rheumatology Surgery
Congress Coverage
2024 ACC Congress 2023 ESMO Congress 2023 EASD Congress 2023 ERS Congress 2023 ESC Congress
Clinical Collections
Advances in Alzheimer’s

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

LIVE: Thursday 27th June 2024, 18:00-19:30 (CEST)
Join our expert panel to discover why you need to understand the drivers of non-adherence in your patients, and how you can optimize medication adherence in your clinics to drastically improve patient outcomes.
ADVANCED SEARCH
Log in
Top
Population Health Metrics
Published in: Population Health Metrics 1/2017

Open Access 01-12-2017 | Research

Comparing trends in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer in the United Kingdom, 1983–2013: joinpoint regression analysis

Authors: Lauren Wilson, Prachi Bhatnagar, Nick Townsend

Published in: Population Health Metrics | Issue 1/2017

Login to get access

Abstract

Background

We aimed to study the time trends underlying a change from cardiovascular disease (CVD) to cancer as the most common cause of age-standardized mortality in the UK between 1983 and 2013.

Methods

A retrospective trend analysis of the World Health Organization mortality database for mortality from all cancers, all CVDs, and their three most common types, by sex and age. Age-standardized mortality rates were adjusted to the 2013 European Standard Population and analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis for annual percent changes.

Results

The difference in mortality rate between total CVD and cancer narrowed over the study period as age-standardized mortality from CVD decreased more steeply than cancer in both sexes. We observed higher overall rates for both diseases in men compared to women, with high mortality rates from ischemic heart disease and lung cancer in men. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated that trends of decreasing rates of CVD have increased over time while decreasing trends in cancer mortality rates have slowed down since the 1990s. The lowest improvements in mortality rates were for cancer in those over 75 years of age and lung cancer in women.

Conclusions

In 2011, the age-standardized mortality rate for cancer exceeded that of CVD in both sexes in the UK. These changing trends in mortality may support evidence for changes in policy and resource allocation in the UK.
Literature
1.
GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2013. Lancet. 2015;385(9963):117–71.CrossRef
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
O’Flaherty M, Ford E, Allender S, Scarborough P, Capewell S. Coronary heart disease trends in England and Wales from 1984 to 2004: concealed levelling of mortality rates among young adults. Heart. 2008;94(2):178–81.CrossRefPubMed
7.
Pereira M, Peleteiro B, Capewell S, Bennett K, Azevedo A, Lunet N. Changing patterns of cardiovascular diseases and cancer mortality in Portugal, 1980–2010. BMC Public Health. 12:2012, 1126.
8.
Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Danaei G, Shibuya K, Adair-Rohani H, et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2010. Lancet. 380(9859):2013, 2224–60.
9.
Griffiths C, Rooney C, Brock A. Leading causes of death in England and Wales–how should we group causes. Health Stat Q. 2005;28:6–17.
10.
11.
Townsend N, Bhatnagar P, Wilkins E, Wickramasinghe K, Rayner M. Cardiovascular disease statistics, 2015. London: British Heart Foundation; 2015.
12.
Davies AR, Smeeth L, Grundy EM. Contribution of changes in incidence and mortality to trends in the prevalence of coronary heart disease in the UK: 1996 2005. Eur Heart J. 28(17):2007, 2142–7.
13.
Marshall DC, Webb TE, Hall RA, Salciccioli JD, Ali R, Maruthappu M. Trends in UK regional cancer mortality 1991–2007. Br J Cancer. 114(3):2016, 340–7.
14.
Bray F, Jemal A, Grey N, Ferlay J, Forman D. Global cancer transitions according to the human development index (2008–2030): a population-based study. Lancet Oncol. 2012;13(8):790–801.CrossRefPubMed
15.
Feigin VL, Forouzanfar MH, Krishnamurthi R, Mensah GA, Connor M, Bennett DA, Moran AE, Sacco RL, Anderson L, Truelsen T, O'Donnell M, Venketasubramanian N, Barker-Collo S, Lawes CMM, Wang M, Shinohara Y, Witt E, Ezzati M, Naghavi M, Murray C. Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990? 2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet. 2010;383(9913):245–55.
16.
Smolina K, Wright FL, Rayner M, Goldacre MJ. Determinants of the decline in mortality from acute myocardial infarction in England between 2002 and 2010: linked national database study. BMJ. 2012;doi:10.​1136/​bmj.​d8059.
17.
18.
Unal B, Critchley JA, Capewell S. Modelling the decline in coronary heart disease deaths in England and Wales, 1981-2000: comparing contributions from primary prevention and secondary prevention. BMJ. 2005;331(7517):614.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
19.
Hardoon SL, Whincup PH, Lennon LT, Wannamethee SG, Capewell S, Morris RW. How much of the recent decline in the incidence of myocardial infarction in British men can be explained by changes in cardiovascular risk factors? Evidence from a prospective population-based study. Circulation. 2008; doi:10.​1161/​CIRCULATIONAHA.​107.​705947.
20.
Bajekal M, Scholes S, Love H, Hawkins N, O'flaherty M, Raine R, et al. Analysing recent socioeconomic trends in coronary heart disease mortality in England, 2000–2007: a population modelling study. PLoS Med. 2012;(6):9, e1001237.
21.
22.
Lee SJ, Boscardin WJ, Stijacic-Cenzer I, Conell-Price J, O'Brien S, Walter LC. Time lag to benefit after screening for breast and colorectal cancer: meta-analysis of survival data from the United States, Sweden, United Kingdom, and Denmark. BMJ. 2013;doi:10.​1136/​bmj.​e8441.
23.
Logan RF, Patnick J, Nickerson C, Coleman L, Rutter MD, von Wagner C, et al. Outcomes of the bowel cancer screening Programme (BCSP) in England after the first 1 million tests. Gut. 2012;61(10):1439–46.CrossRefPubMed
24.
Pirie K, Peto R, Reeves GK, Green J, Beral V. The 21st century hazards of smoking and benefits of stopping: a prospective study of one million women in the UK. The Lancet. 2013;381(9861):133–41.
25.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Global Burden of Disease Results Tool. University of Washington. 2016.
26.
Kontis V, Mathers CD, Rehm J, Stevens GA, Shield KD, Bonita R, et al. Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25× 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study. 2014.
27.
Global Burden of Metabolic Risk Factors for Chronic Diseases Collaboration (BMI Mediated Effects), Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Ezzati M, Woodward M, Rimm E, et al. Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: a pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1·8 million participants. Lancet. 2014;383(9921):970–83.CrossRef
28.
Bhaskaran K, Douglas I, Forbes H, dos-Santos-Silva I, Leon DA, Smeeth L. Body-mass index and risk of 22 specific cancers: a population-based cohort study of 5· 24 million UK adults. Lancet. 2014;384(9945):755–65.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
29.
Sperrin M, Marshall A, Higgins V, Buchan I, Renehan AG. Slowing down of adult body mass index trend increases in England: a latent class analysis of cross-sectional surveys (1992-2010). Int J Obes. 38(6):2014, 818–24.
30.
Green M, Subramanian S, Razak F. Population-level trends in the distribution of body mass index in England, 1992–2013. J Epidemiol Community Health. 70(8):2016, 832–5.
31.
Ecclestone T, Yeates D, Goldacre M. Fall in population-based mortality from coronary heart disease negated in people with diabetes mellitus: data from England. Diabetic Med. 2015;32(10):1329–34.CrossRefPubMed
32.
Wilmot KA, O’Flaherty M, Capewell S, Ford ES, Vaccarino V. Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Declines in the United States From 1979 Through 2011: Evidence for Stagnation in Young Adults, Especially Women. Circulation. 2015; doi:10.​1161/​CIRCULATIONAHA.​115.​015293.
33.
34.
World Health Organization. WHO Methods and Data Sources for Country-level Causes of Death 2000–2012. Global Health Estimates Technical Paper. 2014;WHO/HIS/HSI/GHE/2014.7.
35.
36.
Patnaik JL, Byers T, DiGuiseppi C, Dabelea D, Denberg TD. Cardiovascular disease competes with breast cancer as the leading cause of death for older females diagnosed with breast cancer: a retrospective cohort study. Breast Cancer Res. 2011;(3):13, R64.
37.
38.
Griffiths C, Brock A, Rooney C. The impact of introducing ICD-10 on trends in mortality from circulatory diseases in England and Wales. Health Stat Q. 2004;22:14–20.
39.
Brock A, Griffiths C, Rooney C. The effect of the introduction of ICD-10 on cancer mortality trends in England and Wales. Health Stat Q. 2004.
Metadata
Title
Comparing trends in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer in the United Kingdom, 1983–2013: joinpoint regression analysis
Authors
Lauren Wilson
Prachi Bhatnagar
Nick Townsend
Publication date
01-12-2017
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Population Health Metrics / Issue 1/2017
Electronic ISSN: 1478-7954
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-017-0141-5

Other articles of this Issue 1/2017

Population Health Metrics 1/2017 Go to the issue

Research

Impact of rural family physician program on child mortality rates in Iran: a time-series study

Research

The incomparability of cause of death statistics under “one country, two systems”: Shanghai versus Hong Kong

Research

The contribution of area-level walkability to geographic variation in physical activity: a spatial analysis of 95,837 participants from the 45 and Up Study living in Sydney, Australia

Erratum

Erratum to: Evolution of the “fourth stage” of epidemiologic transition in people aged 80 years and over: population-based cohort study using electronic health records

Research

Multiple cause-of-death data among people with AIDS in Italy: a nationwide cross-sectional study

Research

Estimating the contribution of mortality selection to the East–West German mortality convergence