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Open Access 01-12-2024 | Colorectal Cancer | Research

Hazard function analysis of prognosis after recurrent colorectal cancer

Authors: Ichiro Ise, Kazushige Kawai, Daisuke Nakano, Misato Takao, Soichiro Natsume, Hiroki Kato, Sakiko Nakamori, Akira Dejima, Tatsuro Yamaguchi

Published in: Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery | Issue 1/2024

Abstract

Background and objectives

Mean survival time (MST) is used as the indicator of prognosis in patients with a colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence. The present study aimed to visualize the changes in death risk after a CRC recurrence using hazard function analysis (HFA) to provide an alternative prognostic indicator to MST.

Methods

The medical records of 725 consecutive patients with a recurrence following R0 radical surgery for CRC were retrospectively reviewed.

Results

The five-year, post-recurrence survival rate was 37.8%, and the MST was 3.5 years while the risk of death peaked at 2.9 years post-recurrence. Seven variables were found to predict short-term survival, including the number of metastatic organs ≥ 2, non-surgical treatment for the recurrence, and a short interval before recurrence. In patients with a recurrence in one organ, the MST was four years, the peak time of death predicted by HFA was 2.9 years, and the five-year survival rate was 45.8%. In patients with a surgical resection of the recurrence, the MST was 8 years, the peak time of death was 3.3 years, and the five-year survival rate was 62%.

Conclusions

The present study established a novel method of assessing changes in mortality risk over time using HFA in patients with a CRC recurrence.

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Title: Hazard function analysis of prognosis after recurrent colorectal cancer
Authors: Ichiro Ise
Kazushige Kawai
Daisuke Nakano
Misato Takao
Soichiro Natsume
Hiroki Kato
Sakiko Nakamori
Akira Dejima
Tatsuro Yamaguchi
Publication date: 01-12-2024
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Keywords: Colorectal Cancer
Colorectal Cancer
Published in: Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery / Issue 1/2024
Print ISSN: 1435-2443
Electronic ISSN: 1435-2451
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00423-024-03308-w

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Hazard function analysis of prognosis after recurrent colorectal cancer

Abstract

Background and objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background and objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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