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Open Access 01-12-2022 | Care | Research article

The predictive power of geographic health care utilization for unintentional fatal fall rates

Authors: Matthew Gordon Crowson, Jason A. Beyea, Justin Cottrell, Faisal Karmali, Giovanni Lampasona, James E. Saunders, Richard F. Lewis

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2022

Abstract

Background

Falls are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries among adults over 65 years old. The increase in fall mortality rates is likely multifactorial. With a lack of key drivers identified to explain rising rates of death from falls, accurate predictive modelling can be challenging, hindering evidence-based health resource and policy efforts. The objective of this work is to examine the predictive power of geographic utilization and longitudinal trends in mortality from unintentional falls amongst different demographic and geographic strata.

Methods

This is a nationwide, retrospective cohort study using the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) database. The exposure was death from an unintentional fall as determined by the CDC. Outcomes included aggregate and trend crude and age-adjusted death rates. Health care utilization, reimbursement, and cost metrics were also compared.

Results

Over 2001 to 2018, 465,486 total deaths due to unintentional falls were recorded with crude and age-adjusted rates of 8.42 and 7.76 per 100,000 population respectively. Comparing age-adjusted rates, males had a significantly higher age-adjusted death rate (9.89 vs. 6.17; p < 0.00001), but both male and female annual age-adjusted mortality rates are expected to rise (Male: + 0.25 rate/year, R²= 0.98; Female: + 0.22 rate/year, R²= 0.99). There were significant increases in death rates commensurate with increasing age, with the adults aged 85 years or older having the highest aggregate (201.1 per 100,000) and trending death rates (+ 8.75 deaths per 100,000/year, R²= 0.99). Machine learning algorithms using health care utilization data were accurate in predicting geographic age-adjusted death rates.

Conclusions

Machine learning models have high accuracy in predicting geographic age-adjusted mortality rates from health care utilization data. In the United States from 2001 through 2018, adults aged 85+ years carried the highest death rate from unintentional falls and this rate is forecasted to accelerate.

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Title: The predictive power of geographic health care utilization for unintentional fatal fall rates
Authors: Matthew Gordon Crowson
Jason A. Beyea
Justin Cottrell
Faisal Karmali
Giovanni Lampasona
James E. Saunders
Richard F. Lewis
Publication date: 01-12-2022
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: Care
Published in: BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-12731-x

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Springer Medicine

The predictive power of geographic health care utilization for unintentional fatal fall rates

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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