Predicting the drop out from the maternal, newborn and child healthcare continuum in three East African Community countries: application of machine learning models

For optimal health, the maternal, newborn, and child healthcare (MNCH) continuum necessitates that the mother/child receive the full package of antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal care. In sub-Saharan Africa, dropping out from the MNCH continuum remains a challenge. Using machine learning, the study sought to forecast the MNCH continuum drop out and determine important predictors in three East African Community (EAC) countries.

The study utilised Demographic Health Surveys data from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) (2013/14), Kenya (2014) and Tanzania (2015/16). STATA 17 was used to perform the multivariate logistic regression. Python 3.0 was used to build five machine learning classification models namely the Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network. Performance of the models was assessed using Accuracy, Precision, Recall, Specificity, F1 score and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUROC).

The prevalence of the drop out from the MNCH continuum was 91.0% in the DRC, 72.4% in Kenya and 93.6% in Tanzania. Living in the rural areas significantly increased the odds of dropping out from the MNCH continuum in the DRC (AOR:1.76;95%CI:1.30–2.38), Kenya (AOR:1.23;95%CI:1.03–1.47) and Tanzania (AOR:1.41;95%CI:1.01–1.97). Lower maternal education also conferred a significant increase in the DRC (AOR:2.16;95%CI:1.67–2.79), Kenya (AOR:1.56;95%CI:1.30–1.84) and Tanzania (AOR:1.70;95%CI:1.24–2.34). Non exposure to mass media also conferred a significant positive influence in the DRC (AOR:1.49;95%CI:1.15–1.95), Kenya (AOR:1.46;95%CI:1.19–1.80) and Tanzania (AOR:1.65;95%CI:1.13–2.40). The Random Forest exhibited superior predictive accuracy (Accuracy = 75.7%, Precision = 79.1%, Recall = 92.1%, Specificity = 51.6%, F1 score = 85.1%, AUROC = 70%). The top four predictors with the greatest influence were household wealth, place of residence, maternal education and exposure to mass media.

The MNCH continuum dropout rate is very high in the EAC countries. Maternal education, place of residence, and mass media exposure were common contributing factors to the drop out from MNCH continuum. The Random Forest had the highest predictive accuracy. Household wealth, place of residence, maternal education and exposure to mass media were ranked among the top four features with significant influence. The findings of this study can be used to support evidence-based decisions in MNCH interventions and to develop web-based services to improve continuity of care retention.