Efficacy, safety, and predictive model of Palbociclib in the treatment of HR-positive and HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer

1. Median PFS was 7.17 months (95% CI: 7.61—10.05 months), with an objective response rate (ORR) of 2.80% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 34.58%. The most prevalent grade 3–4 adverse event was neutropenia (38.79%). 2. Multiple variable analysis of the training set revealed that age < 60 years old, PR < 20%, Ki-67 ≥ 20%, luminal B molecular subtype, primary resistance to ET, receipt of late-stage chemotherapy, and presence of liver metastasis or ≥ 2 visceral metastases were independent prognostic factors associated with poor PFS (P < 0.05). Then, the predictive model underwent development and validation utilizing the aforementioned parameters. On the one hand, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of the training set at 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months were 0.771, 0.783, and 0.790, respectively, indicating a strong predictive ability of the developed model. On the other hand, the AUC of the validation set at 6 months, 12 months, and 18 months were 0.720, 0.766, and 0.754, respectively, suggesting the favorable discriminatory ability of the model. The calibration curves also exhibited a good fit with the ideal curves, and the DCA demonstrated the clinical applicability of the model. The nomogram's different scores could distinguish PFS.