Published in:
01-09-2006
Avian Influenza (H5N1) and the Evolutionary and Social Ecology of Infectious Disease Emergence
Authors:
Durrell D. Kapan, PhD, Shannon N. Bennett, PhD, Brett N. Ellis, PhD, Jefferson Fox, Nancy D. Lewis, James H. Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, Bruce A. Wilcox
Published in:
EcoHealth
|
Issue 3/2006
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Excerpt
The recent ascendance of the H5N1 subtype of avian influenza (AI) as the world’s most prominent emerging disease threat presents an opportunity to examine the determinants of infectious disease emergence, particularly because H5N1’s perceived epidemic potential has not been realized. Although social and ecological conditions may seem highly conducive to an AI epidemic in humans, adaptations necessary for efficient human–human transmission have not yet occurred. What are the ecological conditions that increase the probability of emergence? How does an increase in cross-species exposure affect the probability of an evolutionary host switch by H5N1? Can the higher order drivers of change in these conditions be studied to help understand and ultimately manage the risk of infectious disease emergence? Although there exists a large literature on the threat of an AI epidemic, this article aims to synthesize epidemiological, evolutionary, social, and ecologic perspectives into an integrative assessment of the factors influencing infectious disease emergence. …