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World Journal of Surgery

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01-12-2010

A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm

Authors: Yasuhiro Shimizu, Yukihide Kanemitsu, Tsuyoshi Sano, Yoshiki Senda, Nobumasa Mizuno, Kenji Yamao

Published in: World Journal of Surgery | Issue 12/2010

Abstract

Background

The objective of the present study was to use clinical and laboratory data to develop a model for predicting the presence of carcinoma in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN).

Methods

Data were collected on 81 patients with IPMN who underwent a pancreatic resection between 1989 and 2008 at Aichi Cancer Center Hospital. Variables analyzed included age, gender, laboratory findings (serum amylase, carcinoembryonic antigen, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level), pancreatic juice cytology grade, and imaging studies. Factors associated with the presence of carcinoma were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

Among the 81 patients with IPMN, 34 (42%) had malignant tumors (noninvasive carcinoma in 22 and invasive carcinoma in 12), and 47 (58%) had adenoma. On multivariate analysis, existing carcinoma was associated with female gender, main pancreatic duct IPMN, nodule size, and pancreatic juice cytology grade. Based on these variables, a predictive nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the model was 0.903. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 97.1 and 68.1%, respectively, in the validation study, for which the predictive probability of >10% was used to indicate the presence of carcinoma.

Conclusions

The nomogram has high diagnostic predictability for carcinoma in patients with IPMN and for individual cancer probability. This instrument may help to identify patients who need a surgical procedure.

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Title: A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm
Authors: Yasuhiro Shimizu
Yukihide Kanemitsu
Tsuyoshi Sano
Yoshiki Senda
Nobumasa Mizuno
Kenji Yamao
Publication date: 01-12-2010
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
Published in: World Journal of Surgery / Issue 12/2010
Print ISSN: 0364-2313
Electronic ISSN: 1432-2323
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00268-010-0785-9

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

A Nomogram for Predicting the Probability of Carcinoma in Patients with Intraductal Papillary-Mucinous Neoplasm

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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