A combined analysis of maximum standardized uptake value on FDG-PET, genetic markers, and clinicopathological risk factors in the prognostic stratification of patients with resected oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma

Clinical outcomes of patients with resected oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) chiefly depend on the presence of specific clinicopathological risk factors (RFs). Here, we performed a combined analysis of FDG-PET, genetic markers, and clinicopathological RFs in an effort to improve prognostic stratification.

We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 2036 consecutive patients with first primary OCSCC who underwent surgery between 1996 and 2016. Of them, 345 underwent ultra-deep targeted sequencing (UDTS, between 1996 and 2011) and 168 whole exome sequencing (WES, between 2007 and 2016). Preoperative FDG-PET imaging was performed in 1135 patients from 2001 to 2016. Complete data on FDG-PET, genetic markers, and clinicopathological RFs were available for 327 patients.

Using log-ranked tests based on 5-year disease-free survival (DFS), the optimal cutoff points for maximum standardized uptake values (SUV-max) of the primary tumor and neck metastatic nodes were 22.8 and 9.7, respectively. The 5-year DFS rates were as follows: SUVtumor-max ≥ 22.8 or SUVnodal-max ≥ 9.7 (n = 77) versus SUVtumor-max < 22.8 and SUVnodal-max < 9.7 (n = 250), 32%/62%, P < 0.001; positive UDTS or WES gene panel (n = 64) versus negative (n = 263), 25%/62%, P < 0.001; pN3b (n = 165) versus pN1-2 (n = 162), 42%/68%, P < 0.001. On multivariate analyses, SUVtumor-max ≥ 22.8 or SUVnodal-max ≥ 9.7, a positive UDTS/WES gene panel, and pN3b disease were identified as independent prognosticators for 5-year outcomes. Based on these variables, we devised a scoring system that identified four distinct prognostic groups. The 5-year rates for patients with a score from 0 to 3 were as follows: loco-regional control, 80%/67%/47%/24% (P < 0.001); distant metastases, 13%/23%/55%/92% (P < 0.001); DFS, 74%/58%/28%/7% (P < 0.001); and disease-specific survival, 80%/64%/35%/7% (P < 0.001) respectively.

The combined assessment of tumor and nodal SUV-max, genetic markers, and pathological node status may refine the prognostic stratification of OCSCC patients.