Cent Eur J Public Health 2013, 21(3):140-145 | DOI: 10.21101/cejph.a3840

The Impact of the July 2007 Heat Wave on Daily Mortality in Belgrade, Serbia

Dragan C. Bogdanović1, Zoran G. Milošević2, Konstansa K. Lazarević1, Zana Ć. Dolićanin1, Dragan M. Ranđelović3, Stefan D. Bogdanović4
1 Department of Biochemical and Medical Sciences, State University of Novi Pazar, Serbia
2 Faculty of Medicine, University of Niš, Serbia
3 Academy for Criminalistic and Police Studies Belgrade, Serbia
4 Public Health Institute Niš, Serbia

Objective: Mortality has been shown to increase with heat waves. Serbia experienced the hottest heat wave in July 2007. In this study, we examined patterns of non-traumatic excess mortality in Belgrade during this event.

Methods: The numbers of deaths observed during the 9-day heat wave were compared to those expected on the basis of mortality rates reported for the previous eight years and two following years. Excess mortality was analyzed by age, gender and cause of death.

Results: There was a total of 167 excess deaths (38%) between 16 and 24 July. People aged 75 years and older accounted for 151 (90%) of all excess deaths. An increase of mortality among elderly was 76% in comparison to the baseline mortality. Excess female mortality was over two times higher than excess male mortality (54% : 23%). The biggest increase in mortality was from diabetes mellitus (286%), chronic kidney disease (200%), respiratory system diseases (73%), and nervous system diseases (67%). Cardiovascular and malignant neoplasms mortality accounted for the highest absolute numbers of excess deaths (77 and 49, respectively). There was no decrease in mortality in the 60-day period after the heat wave.

Conclusions: There are several causes of an increase in heat-related mortality. The most vulnerable population group is the elderly females.

Keywords: climate change, heat wave, temperature, mortality, vulnerable populations

Received: September 14, 2012; Revised: June 2, 2013; Accepted: June 2, 2013; Published: September 1, 2013  Show citation

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Bogdanović DC, Milošević ZG, Lazarević KK, Dolićanin ZĆ, Ranđelović DM, Bogdanović SD. The Impact of the July 2007 Heat Wave on Daily Mortality in Belgrade, Serbia. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2013;21(3):140-145. doi: 10.21101/cejph.a3840. PubMed PMID: 24344537.
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