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Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003

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Abstract

Studies on temperature–mortality time trends especially address heat, so that any contribution on the subject of cold is necessarily of interest. This study describes the modification of the lagged effects of cold on mortality in Castile-La Mancha from 1975 to 2003, with the novelty of also approaching this aspect in terms of mortality trigger thresholds. Cross-correlation functions (CCFs) were thus established with 15 lags, after application of ARIMA models to the mortality data and minimum daily temperatures (from November to March), and the results for the periods 1975–1984, 1985–1994 and 1995–2003 were then compared. In addition, daily mortality residuals for the periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2003 were related to minimum temperatures grouped in 2°C intervals, with a cold threshold temperature being obtained in cases where such residuals increased significantly (p < 0.05) with respect to the mean for the study period. A cold-related mortality trigger threshold of −3°C was obtained for Ciudad Real for the period 1990–2003. The significant number of lags (p < 0.05) in the CCFs declined every 10 years in Toledo (5–2–0), Cuenca (4–2–0), Albacete (4–3–0) and Ciudad Real (3–2–1). This meant that, while the trend in cold-related mortality trigger thresholds in the region could not be ascertained, it was possible to establish a reduction in the lagged effects of cold on mortality, attributable to the improvement in socio-economic conditions over the study period. Evidence was shown of the effects of cold on mortality, a finding that renders the adoption of preventive measures advisable in any case where intense cold is forecast.

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Acknowledgement

This study was funded by a grant from the Castile-La Mancha Socio-Sanitary Foundation (Fundación Sociosanitaria de Castilla-La Mancha), Dossier PI 2010/007.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Torrijos Public Health District, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Welfare Authority (Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social de Castilla-La Mancha), Torrijos (Toledo), Spain

    Isidro J. Miron

  2. Health Sciences Institute, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Welfare Authority, Talavera de la Reina (Toledo), Spain

    Juan Carlos Montero

  3. Castile-La Mancha Health Service (Servicio de Salud de Castilla-La Mancha – SESCAM), Talavera de la Reina (Toledo), Spain

    Juan José Criado-Alvarez

  4. CIBERESP. National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain

    Cristina Linares

  5. National School of Public Health, Carlos III Institute of Health, Madrid, Spain

    Julio Díaz

  6. Distrito de Salud Pública, Centro de Especialidades, Diagnóstico y Tratamiento, Avenida de la Estación, 102, 45500, Torrijos (Toledo), Spain

    Isidro J. Miron

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  1. Isidro J. Miron
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  2. Juan Carlos Montero
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  3. Juan José Criado-Alvarez
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  4. Cristina Linares
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  5. Julio Díaz
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Correspondence to Isidro J. Miron.

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Miron, I.J., Montero, J.C., Criado-Alvarez, J.J. et al. Intense cold and mortality in Castile-La Mancha (Spain): study of mortality trigger thresholds from 1975 to 2003. Int J Biometeorol 56, 145–152 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0407-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0407-8

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