Summary
In a 10-year prospective study of 241 people with ‘borderline diabetes” (impaired glucose tolerance) identified by screening of the Bedford adult population, 36 (15%) worsened to diabetes and 128 (53%) substantially improved their glucose tolerance. The major predictor of worsening to diabetes was the level of blood glucose at baseline. This was statistically significant (p < 0.05), independent of other factors, both for deterioration in the first and in the second five years of observation. Body mass index, a measure of adiposity, did not predict worsening to diabetes during the first five years, but was an independent and significant predictor of worsening during the second five years (p < 0.05). The apparent effect of adiposity was complex, for it was also significantly related to improvement in glucose tolerance during the 10-year follow-up. Persons with impaired glucose tolerance are a heterogeneous group and with present knowledge the ability to predict metabolic deterioration is limited.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Sharp CL, Butterfield WJH, Keen H (1964) Diabetes survey in Bedford, 1962. Proc R Soc Med 57: 193–204
Jarrett RJ, Keen H, Boyns DR, Chlouverakis C, Fuller J (1969) The concomitants of raised blood sugar: studies in newly detected hyperglycaemics, 1. A comparative assessment of neurological functions in blood sugar groups. Guy's Hosp Rep 118: 237–246
Keen H, Chlouverakis C, Fuller J, Jarrett RJ (1969) The concomitants of raised blood sugar: studies in newly detected hyperglycaemics, 2. Urinary albumin excretion, blood pressure and their relation to blood sugar levels. Guy's Hosp Rep 118: 247–254
Armitage P (1971) Statistical methods in medical research. Blackwell, Oxford, pp 263–268
Walker SH, Duncan DB (1967) Estimation of the probability of an event as a function of several independent variables. Biometrika 54: 167–179
Jarrett RJ, Keen H, Fuller JH, McCartney M (1979) Worsening to diabetes in men with impaired glucose tolerance (“borderline diabetes”). Diabetologia 16: 25–30
O'Sullivan JB, Mahan CM (1965) Blood sugar levels, glycosuria, and body weight related to development of diabetes mellitus. J Am Med Assoc 194: 117–122
O'Sullivan JB, Mahan CM (1968) Prospective study of 352 young patients with chemical diabetes. N Engl J Med 278: 1038–1041
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Keen, H., Jarrett, R.J. & McCartney, P. The ten-year follow-up of the Bedford Survey (1962–1972): Glucose tolerance and diabetes. Diabetologia 22, 73–78 (1982). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00254832
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00254832