Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D threshold and risk of rickets in young children: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis to inform the development of dietary requirements for vitamin D

The objective of this systematic review was to determine a minimum serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) threshold based on the risk of having rickets in young children. This work was commissioned by the WHO and FAO within the framework of the update of the vitamin D requirements for children 0–3 years old.

A systematic search of Embase was conducted to identify studies involving children below  4 years of age with serum 25OHD levels and radiologically confirmed rickets, without any restriction related to the geographical location or language. Study-level and individual participant data (IPD)-level random effects multi-level meta-analyses were conducted. The odds, sensitivity and specificity for rickets at different serum 25OHD thresholds were calculated for all children as well as for children with adequate calcium intakes only.

A total of 120 studies with 5412 participants were included. At the study-level, children with rickets had a mean serum 25OHD of 23 nmol/L (95% CI 19–27). At the IPD level, children with rickets had a median and mean serum 25OHD of 23 and 29 nmol/L, respectively. More than half (55%) of the children with rickets had serum 25OHD below 25 nmol/L, 62% below 30 nmol/L, and 79% below 40 nmol/L. Analysis of odds, sensitivities and specificities for nutritional rickets at different serum 25OHD thresholds suggested a minimal risk threshold of around 28 nmol/L for children with adequate calcium intakes and 40 nmol/L for children with low calcium intakes.

This systematic review and IPD meta-analysis suggests that from a public health perspective and to inform the development of dietary requirements for vitamin D, a minimum serum 25OHD threshold of around 28 nmol/L and above would represent a low risk of nutritional rickets for the majority of children with an adequate calcium intake.