Published in:

09-05-2024 | Pancreatic Cancer | Original Article

Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030

Authors: Haoyu An, Hanqian Dai, Xiaomeng Liu

Published in: Digestive Diseases and Sciences | Issue 7/2024

Abstract

Aim

To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.

Results

Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.

Conclusions

The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.

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Title: Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030
Authors: Haoyu An
Hanqian Dai
Xiaomeng Liu
Publication date: 09-05-2024
Publisher: Springer US
Keywords: Pancreatic Cancer
Pancreatic Cancer
Psychodynamic Regression
Published in: Digestive Diseases and Sciences / Issue 7/2024
Print ISSN: 0163-2116
Electronic ISSN: 1573-2568
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10620-024-08465-y

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Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030

Abstract