Integrating Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Tests with Standard Cancer Screening: System Dynamics Model Development and Feasibility Testing

Cancer screening plays a critical role in early disease detection and improving outcomes. In Australia, established screening protocols for colorectal, breast and cervical cancer have significantly contributed to timely cancer detection. However, the recent introduction of multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests arguably can disrupt current screening, yet the extent to which these tests provide additional benefits remains uncertain. We present the development and initial validation of a system dynamics (SD) model that estimates the additional cancer detections and costs associated with MCED tests.

This article describes the development of a simulation model built to evaluate the additional patient diagnoses and the economic impact of incorporating MCED testing alongside Australia’s well-established standard of care (SOC) screening programs for colorectal, breast, cervical and lung cancers. The model was designed to estimate the additional number of patients diagnosed at each cancer stage (stage I, II, III, IV, or unknown) and the associated costs. This simulation model allows for the analysis of multiple scenarios under a plausible set of assumptions regarding population-level participation rates.

An SD model was developed to represent the existing SOC national cancer screening pathways and to integrate potential clinical pathways that could be introduced by MCED tests. The SD model was built to investigate three scenarios for the use of MCED testing: firstly, to explore the viability of MCED testing as a substitute among individuals who are not opting for SOC screening for any reason; secondly, to implement MCED testing exclusively for individuals ineligible for SOC screening, yet have high-risk characteristics; and thirdly, to employ MCED testing after SOC screening to serve as a triaging/confirmatory tool for individuals receiving inconclusive test results. The three primary scenarios were constructed by varying diagnostic accuracy and uptake rates of MCED tests.

The clinical utility and outcomes of MCED testing for screening and early detection still lack comprehensive evidence. Nonetheless, this simulation model facilitates a thorough analysis of MCED tests within the Australian healthcare context, providing insights into potential additional detections and costs to the healthcare system, which may help prioritise future evidence development. The adaptable yet novel SD model presented herein is anticipated to be of considerable interest to industry, policymakers, consumers and clinicians involved in informing clinical and economic decisions regarding integrating MCED tests as cancer screening and early detection tools. The expected results of applying this SD model will determine whether using MCED testing in conjunction with SOC screening offers any potential benefits, possibly guiding policy decisions and clinical practices towards the adoption of MCED tests.