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Open Access 05-03-2025 | Glomerulonephritis | Nephrology – Original Paper

The global burden of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis: trends and predictions

Authors: Xiaotong Wang, Zhaoyi Liu, Na Yi, Liguo Li, Li Ma, Linyue Yuan, Xuejiao Wang

Published in: International Urology and Nephrology

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Abstract

Background

Glomerulonephritis (GN), one of the primary causes of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is gaining recognition as a major public health issue. This research sought to evaluate the worldwide impact of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis (GN-CKD) between 1990 and 2021 and to forecast trends up to 2036, leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.

Methods

The analysis of GN-CKD from 1990 to 2021 utilized GBD open data as a secondary dataset to examine global prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates of GN-CKD, and the changing trends of these indicators were statistically analyzed. To assess the practical difference between each country/region and the frontier, we utilized the 2021 DALYs and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). To assist healthcare institutions in formulating more effective public health policies, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate until 2036 were predicted using Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) modeling techniques.

Results

The global prevalence rate of GN-CKD, as indicated by the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), grew 10.81% between 1990 and 2021, with a marginal average annual change of 0.04 (AAPC0.04, 0.03–0.05). Similarly, there was an increase of 15.84% in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for GN-CKD during this period, with an average annual trend of 0.50 (AAPC0.50, 0.41–0.59). Moreover, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASYR) for GN-CKD observed an upward trend of 8.60% from 1990 to 2021, with a modest average annual change of 0.27 (AAPC0.27, 0.17–0.37). Our findings indicate that the impact of GN-CKD differs across gender, geographic areas, and socioeconomic statuses. Elevated fasting plasma glucose levels, high body-mass index (BMI), and elevated systolic blood pressure were the main contributors to deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Fortunately, the burden of GN-CKD is expected to diminish by 2036.

Conclusions

The worldwide impact of GN-CKD has risen, with variations observed between genders and across SDI regions. Encouraging trends point toward a potential reduction in GN-CKD-related burden in the future.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
The global burden of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis: trends and predictions
Authors
Xiaotong Wang
Zhaoyi Liu
Na Yi
Liguo Li
Li Ma
Linyue Yuan
Xuejiao Wang
Publication date
05-03-2025
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
International Urology and Nephrology
Print ISSN: 0301-1623
Electronic ISSN: 1573-2584
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11255-025-04440-2

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