Since February, 2023, the omicron variant has accounted for essentially all new coronavirus infections in Japan. If future infections involve mutant strains with the same level of infectivity and virulence as omicron, the government’s basic policy will be to prevent the spread of infection, without compromising socioeconomic activities. Objectives include protecting pregnant women and elderly persons, and focusing on citizens requiring hospitalization and those at risk of serious illness, without imposing new social restrictions. Although the government tries to raise public awareness through education, most people affected by COVID-19 stay at home, and by the time patients become aware of the seriousness of their disease, it has often reached moderate or higher severity. In this review, we discuss why this situation persists even though the disease seems to have become milder with the shift from the delta variant to omicron. We also propose a pathophysiological method to determine the risk of severe illness. This assessment can be made at home in the early stages of COVID-19 infection, using urine analysis. Applicability of this method to drug discovery and development is also discussed.
